July Mid-Month Update: The Recovery Begins

July is only halfway through, and it is already telling a different story than June. The crypto sleeve — which I documented honestly through two consecutive issues of distribution declines and nearly $10,000 in unrealized losses — is showing its first meaningful signs of recovery. Not a full recovery. Not a reason to declare victory. But a genuine, data-backed turn in the right direction.

At the same time, gold mining volatility is staying elevated, my new positions are earning their place in the portfolio, and the macro environment — chaotic as it is — is generating the kind of uncertainty that covered call income investors actually benefit from.

Here is where things stand at the midpoint of July.

Through July 10th, I have received confirmed distributions from the portfolio. The week of July 14th has additional distributions already declared and confirmed. The full month projection sits at $4,205.85 — an improvement over June’s $4,092.97 and a sign that Q3 is starting on stronger footing than Q2 ended.

 A note on projections: the July total is not yet confirmed. Several ETFs have estimated distributions for the second half of the month that could come in higher or lower than shown. The complete July final numbers will be published in Issue #14 once all distributions are confirmed. Issue #12 on July 21st will feature deep dives on three of my strongest-performing ETFs right now — MSTY, GDXW, and GOOW — including what's driving their distributions and whether the performance is sustainable.

What I can tell you today is that the trajectory is positive and the reasons behind it are meaningful.

If you read Issue #9, you know how painful the crypto sleeve has been. MSTW, MSTY, YBTC, YETH, and BTCI all took significant distribution cuts as Bitcoin declined and covered call premiums compressed. I held each position and explained the rationale. The thesis was that Bitcoin was bottoming and that a recovery would lift distributions meaningfully and quickly.

The second week of July is the first real evidence that the thesis is playing out.

Here is what happened between the first and second weekly distributions for my key positions:

MSTW — the most dramatic move:

Week one of July: $9.70 from 500 shares. Week two declared: $44.89 from 500 shares. That is a 363% increase in a single week.

Let me put that in plain terms. MSTW paid me less than $10 in its first July distribution. Seven days later, it declared nearly $45. The same 500 shares. The same ETF. A completely different covered call premium environment was driven by MicroStrategy’s implied volatility spiking as Bitcoin began recovering.

MSTY — confirmation of the trend:

Week one: $28.66 from 185 shares. Week two: $38.13 from 185 shares. That is a 33% increase week over week. MSTY and MSTW are both built on MicroStrategy, which holds Bitcoin with leverage. When Bitcoin moves — even modestly — MSTR moves harder. And when MSTR moves hard, the implied volatility spikes. And when implied volatility spikes, the covered call premiums that fund these distributions expand rapidly.

This is the mechanism I described in Issue #9 when I explained why I was holding through the pain. The same leverage that amplified the losses on the way down amplifies the recovery on the way up.

GOOW — a surprise outperformer:

Week one: $21.56 from 144 shares. Week two declared: $89.41 from 144 shares. That is a 315% increase. GOOW is a Google covered call ETF — not a crypto position. But it is worth highlighting here because the move reflects something broader happening in the market. Alphabet’s implied volatility spiked significantly in the second week of July, generating exceptional covered call premiums for GOOW holders. This is exactly the kind of surprise outperformance that a diversified 37-ETF portfolio occasionally produces.

What this means going forward:

I am not declaring the crypto recovery complete. Bitcoin has not made the sustained move to higher levels that would fully confirm my thesis from Issue #9. YBTC and YETH distributions are still compressed — $28.40 and $23.25, respectively, in week two estimates, essentially flat from week one. Pure Ethereum exposure has not yet felt the same recovery impulse as MSTR-based ETFs.

But MSTW and MSTY distributions moving this sharply in a single week is a meaningful signal. If Bitcoin continues to stabilize and build at current levels, the covered call premium environment for these ETFs will continue to improve. The $9.70 MSTW week is looking increasingly like the low point.